In 2023, Announced (Official) Consumer Inflation averaged 53.4 percent, while Perceived Inflation was 106.9 percent!
- There is a gap between felt (perceived) inflation and announced (official) inflation!
- In 2023, the difference between announced (official) inflation and felt (perceived) inflation is 53 points on average!
- The inflation felt (perceived) by the public is 2 times higher than the official inflation!
- TurkStat should regularly release data on perceived consumer inflation
With this newsletter, DİSK Research Center (DİSK-AR) shares with the public detailed data on perceived inflation, which has recently been discussed in public. As a result of the applications and studies we made following the discussions that were reflected in the public opinion at the end of January 2024, we have accessed the raw data of TurkStat on perceived inflation. We share the results of our study on TurkStat data with the public. Our research includes monthly perceived inflation data for 2021, 2022 and 2023.
In 2023, perceived inflation was about twice the announced (official) inflation. The average felt (perceived) inflation in 2023 was 53 points higher than the average announced (official) inflation. In 2022, average perceived inflation was 98.44 percent, while average announced (official) inflation was 71.98 percent. Thus, the difference between official (announced) and perceived inflation was 36.8 points. In 2021, the average felt (perceived) inflation was 56.39 percent, the average announced (official) inflation was 19.42 percent and the difference was 34.91 points.
In 2021, 2022 and 2023, the difference between perceived inflation and announced (official) inflation was the highest in 2023.
There are various reasons for the difference between perceived inflation and official inflation. Although it is a subjective data, the perceived inflation data is an important indicator and clue about the level and impact of inflation. A large difference between announced (official) inflation and perceived inflation is an indication that there are serious problems in measuring inflation.
While the statistical agencies of countries with much lower inflation share data on perceived and expected inflation with the public, in Turkey, one of the countries with one of the highest inflation rates, TurkStat has these data but does not make them public. As of the end of 2023, perceived inflation in EU countries was 9.5 percent, while announced inflation was 2.4 percent. The difference is 7.1 percentage points. According to TurkStat, perceived inflation in Turkey in December 2023 was 100.5 percent, while announced inflation was 64.8 percent.
The difference between perceived inflation and official (announced) inflation will further increase the credibility debates about the CPI data of TURKSTAT. TURKSTAT should transparently share the data on inflation measurement with the public.