- Contrary to TurkStat’s claim that employment has increased, the equivalent full-time employment loss rate during the epidemic period (2020-2021) is 13.2%!
- Equivalent full-time employment loss during the epidemic period is 3 million 613 thousand on average!
- Equivalent full-time employment loss during the epidemic period is 15.5 percent for women and 12.4 percent for men!
- Equivalent full-time employment loss in Turkey was well above the world average of 8.8%.
- Covid-19 created 255 million equivalent full-time job losses worldwide in 2020!
DİSK-AR RELEASED THE BALANCE SHEET OF EMPLOYMENT LOSS IN THE EPIDEMIC
The Covid-19 epidemic, which spread all over the world at the beginning of 2020 and still continues, causes great employment and income losses for citizens, especially workers, all over the world. In Turkey, the negative socio-economic effects of the epidemic continue.
After the Covid-19 epidemic, working hours fell all over the world and there was a great decrease in the number of people at work. This situation led to a very serious employment and, accordingly, loss of income. After a year and a half, the balance sheet created by the epidemic in employment became much clearer.
In this report, the employment losses caused by the epidemic calculated by the International Labor Organization (ILO) on a worldwide scale and the estimates made by DİSK-AR for Turkey are discussed together and the employment balance sheet of the epidemic is tried to be drawn.
GLOBAL BALANCE SHEET OF THE EPIDEMIC: 255 MILLION EMPLOYMENT LOSSES IN 2020
According to ILO Monitor reports, in 2020, working hours decreased by 8.8 percent globally compared to the 4th quarter of 2019. The ILO has calculated that this reduction in working hours corresponds to the equivalent of 255 million full-time job losses. The ILO states that this loss is about 4 times higher than the 2008/2009 economic crisis. Considering that the economic crisis of 2008/2009 caused an enormous recession and job loss, and the effects of the epidemic still continue, the dimensions and impact of the loss of employment caused by the Covid-19 epidemic can be better understood.
The reasons for the loss of equivalent full-time employment are the shortening of working hours and the increase in those who are unemployed due to Covid-19, those who work for less time and those who withdraw from the workforce. As it is known, the measures taken due to the epidemic seriously affected the way of working. Working hours have shortened, short working and leave applications, and remote working and layoffs have become common.
According to ILO reports, the equivalent full-time employment losses caused by Covid-19 vary widely by country group. These differences may vary according to the prevalence of Covid-19 in countries and the measures taken.
In 2020, the equivalent full-time job loss rate compared to Q4 2019 is 6.7 percent in low-income countries, 7.3 percent in middle-high-income countries, 8.3 percent in high-income countries and 11.3 percent in low-middle-income countries. took place as According to the DİSK-AR calculations made using the ILO methodology, this rate in Turkey was at a very high level of 15.8% for 2020.
The calculations made by the ILO for the world only cover the year 2020 and do not include the data for 2021. DİSK-AR created a forecast for the entire epidemic period (18-month period from the beginning of 2020 to June 2021) using the ILO method and using the data of the Household Labor Force Surveys of TÜİK in Turkey. Below is our estimation of the loss of employment caused by the epidemic in Turkey.
TURKISH BALANCE SHEET BY THE EPIDE: AVERAGE 3 MILLION 613 thousand EQUIVALENT FULL-TIME EMPLOYMENT LOSS (13.2 PERCENT)
DİSK-AR used the International Labor Organization’s (ILO) equivalent full-time employment loss methodology in the 1.5-year period between the onset of the Covid-19 epidemic (first quarter of 2020) and the period when the epidemic restrictions were reduced and the economy opened up, in June 2021 (2021 Q2). calculated the job loss caused by Covid-19.
As it is known, TurkStat could not reflect the effects of the epidemic on the labor market due to the inadequacy of the unemployment calculation method it used. Starting from the Unemployment and Employment Outlook-June 2020 Report, DİSK-AR tried to calculate the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic on the labor markets by using the equivalent full-time job loss method of the ILO.
Making use of the quarterly seasonally adjusted raw data of TURKSTAT before and after the epidemic and based on the equivalent full-time employment loss method of the ILO, both for 2020 (4 quarters) and for the epidemic period covering the 1st quarter of 2020 and the 2nd quarter of 2021. We calculated the total equivalent loss of full-time employment (6 quarters, 1.5 years). Methodological information on the calculation method is at the end of this report.
According to the calculation based on the seasonally adjusted data based on the fourth quarter of 2019, the quarter before the appearance of Covid-19, the number of equivalent full-time employment losses was 2 million 117 thousand (7.8%) in the 1st quarter of 2020, in the 2nd quarter of 2020. 8 million 942 thousand (32.8 percent), 3 million 307 thousand (12.1%) in the third quarter of 2020 and 2 million 862 thousand (10.5 percent) in the 4th quarter of 2020. Thus, the equivalent loss of full-time employment for 2020 was 4 million 307 thousand. The equivalent full-time employment loss rate was calculated as 15.8 percent in 2020. The biggest loss was experienced in the second quarter of 2020, when the effect of the epidemic was most intense.
With the partial opening of the economy in the first quarter of 2021, working hours increased again. Thus, the employment loss in the first quarter of 2021 was 8 percent compared to the 4th quarter of 2019 and 8.3 percent in the second quarter of 2021. Thus, in the 6-quarter period of the epidemic (beginning of 2020-20 June), the total employment loss rate was 13.2 percent and the number was 3 million 613 thousand.
It will be seen that the equivalent employment loss experienced during the epidemic in Turkey is higher when compared to the world and various regional averages.
HUGE LOSS IN WOMEN’S EMPLOYMENT
During the epidemic, women’s employment losses are experienced more than men all over the world. According to the ILO, employment loss for women due to Covid-19 is 5 percent in 2020, while it is 3.9 percent for men.
Looking at the equivalent full-time employment loss during the epidemic by gender, it is seen that the loss of employment in women is more common than in men. Equivalent full-time employment loss of women in 2020 was 18.3 percent compared to the 4th quarter of 2019. This corresponded to a numerical loss of 1 million 408 thousand employments. In the same period, the loss of equivalent full-time employment for men was 14.8 percent (2 million 899 thousand), 4.5 points less than women.
In the 6-quarter period between the 1st quarter of 2020 and the 2nd quarter of 2021, the average equivalent full-time employment loss was 12.5 percent (2 million 422 thousand) for men and 15.5 percent (1 million 191 thousand) for women. Gender inequality, which already exists in the labor markets, has deepened with the effect of the epidemic.
The fact that most of the women work in sectors heavily affected by the epidemic is one of the reasons why job losses occur more in women. It is known that women’s employment is intense in sectors that have been heavily damaged by the epidemic, especially in accommodation and food services, wholesale retail and trade, and education.
The second important issue is the unequal distribution of domestic care burdens throughout the epidemic. Around three-quarters of all unpaid care services in normal times are provided by women. Women had to withdraw from employment more, especially due to the increased burden of domestic care. It was observed that the domestic care burden of women increased more during the epidemic period. According to the ILO, these effects on women can undo some of the gender equality gains in labor markets and aggravate inequalities.
LARGE INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF OBJECTIVES
Another indicator that reveals the effect of the epidemic on employment is the increase in the number of unemployed people and the decrease in the average weekly actual working hours, which we calculated by using the raw data of TURKSTAT. The negative impact of the epidemic on employment is seen more clearly here. As it is known, there have been changes in the way of working during the Covid-19 period. During the epidemic, rotational working, remote working, short working, paid/unpaid/administrative leave applications became widespread. These changes have led to significant increases in the number of unemployed people and significant reductions in working hours.
According to our calculation based on the 2nd quarter periods between 2014 and 2021, there was a huge increase in the rate of the unemployed in the 2nd quarter of 2020, as expected. While the rate of unemployed people was 4 percent in the second quarter of 2014 and this rate was in the 3-4 percent band throughout the years, it increased to 6.2 percent in the second quarter of 2019 and reached 21 percent in the second quarter of 2020, when the impact of the epidemic peaked. Although the rate of unemployed people decreased to 7.5 percent with the opening of the economy in the second quarter of 2021, it is quite high compared to the averages of the previous period. This shows that the negative impact of the epidemic on employment continued in the second quarter of 2021.
On the other hand, with the appearance of Covid-19, the actual weekly working hours decreased significantly in the 2nd quarter of 2020. Actual weekly working hours, which was 47.4 in the 2nd quarter of 2014, decreased to 40.5 in the 2nd quarter of 2020, which covers the times when Covid-19 has just started to be seen in Turkey. Thus, there was a 14.6% decrease in working hours compared to 2014. With the reopening of the economy, the average weekly actual working hours rose to 43.1 in the second quarter of 2021 (Chart 4). Thus, while the average weekly actual working time increased by 6.4 percent compared to the same period of 2020, it decreased by 9.1 percent compared to the same period of 2014.
CONCLUSION: EMPLOYMENT DID NOT INCREASED IN THE EPIDEMIC, ON THE CONVERSION IT DECREASED SERIOUSLY
According to the calculation method of TUIK, which does not take into account the effects of the epidemic, while unemployment decreased during the epidemic period, there were great increases in employment. We put forward the question marks in the unemployment and employment calculation of TurkStat in the bulletin of DISK-AR dated 10 August 2021.
The calculation we made based on the ILO method also reveals the serious loss of employment experienced during the epidemic period. As a result of the research, there was a loss of 15.8 percent in employment in 2020, and the numerical equivalent of this was 4.3 million.
If we take into account the entire epidemic period, the equivalent employment loss rate was 13.2 and the total equivalent employment loss was 3.6 million. This means that in each period during the epidemic period, there was an average of 3.6 million losses compared to the last quarter of 2019. In other words, there was less work for 3.6 million people. This is the real employment balance, the loss of employment felt by the employees, felt in daily life.